The Third Debate - Cameron probably edges it ahead of another strong Clegg performance

Well despite Mandelson's spinning, it is clear that Gordon Brown failed to break out of the rut he is in and lost the third debate.

I felt Cameron had his best performance so far and probably edged ahead of Clegg this time, but I was pleased with Nick Clegg's performance overall and across the three debates, Clegg was the main winner, Cameron did himself no harm, and Brown did himself no good.

What will this do to the polls ? I expect it to confirm a further drop in Labour support, especially with ITV running a poll this evening showing that 40% of people who were planning to vote Labour were not so sure now.

Did you spot the unpatriotic element of the Tory Party Election Broadcast ?

Did anyone see the Tory PEB ? Did anyone notice the money in the broken piggy bank ?

If you look closely you will see all the coins were US dollars.

Isn't it slightly odd that the "keep the pound" party are using piggy banks full of US dollars ?

One to read ... Day 19

With the Daily attacks from the right wing press misleading people about the Lib Dems policy on immigration, it is worth reading Bracknell Blog's explanation of the current 14 year rule (which Labour and Tory parties support) which allowed an amnesty for all illegal immigrants.

Common sense finally overtakes the vanity of Broadland Conservatives

It's is interesting to see that the Conservatives have replaced a number of the poster boards that occasionally adorn the fields of Tory supporting farmers across the Broadland constituency.

The boards that first went up followed the Tories policy this year of putting Tory candidates faces on to the poster boards. This is great when you have a photogenic candidate (Liz Truss) or are a well known local MP (Henry Bellingham), but in some cases it really does not work.

In the first instance, the fact that you put your face on the boards really does mean you get only one chance to use them (unless you re-use five year old photos like Broadland Tories do). I know in North Norfolk we got plenty of value from our "Norman Lamb Winning Here" posters, and they have been able to be used over and over again, saving the environment and an awful lot of money.

The second reason why pictures are not always good is that it detracts from the simple message. You want people to notice the writing, the words, the logo, the colours, and not the face. In some cases I think Tory poster boards resemble estate agents boards and are less effective.

The final reason though, and perhaps Broadland Tories have shown this to be true, is that a face (even a five year old picture) of a chubby chap approaching retirement with a moustache is not always a vote winner ! So we have seen a number of boards change from the one with a picture of Tory hopeful Keith Simpson to one with a message on and no picture.

Certainly local people told me they thought them rather unimpressive and asked me who the the picture was of. One person told me Chloe Smith had really gone off ! I couldn't possibly comment.

Less than two weeks until polling day and Gordon Brown is having a relaunch

Desperate times for Labour it appears. Sky News and the BBC are reporting that Gordon Brown will today start having a higher profile in what has been dubbed a "relaunch".

One to read ... Day 17

An excellent piece by Richard Wilson highlights the Tories hypocrisy over press freedom.

When they were accused yesterday of organising the right wing press to make a co-ordinated attack on Nick Clegg, they claimed that the press should be free to report what they want without political interference.

Yet as Richard points out, the Tories made legal threats against the BBC to stop them showing a programme about Tory donor and "non-dom" Lord Ashcroft.

It appears, as ever, that the Tories like to talk about press freedom but don't actually believe in it.

English Democrats PEB

Having just seen the English Democrats PEB on TV, I have to say I am slightly bemused.

Some bloke presented the whole advert, looking neither excited or energised about what he was saying whilst the bullet points he was talking about were not even put on screen means you were left wondering the whole time who this rather boring bloke was. Also, the broadcast appeared to have been filmed on a cheap camcorder meaning that the colours looked slightly washed out.

Also, I was confused about their line about not being "left or right", when they stood sown in North Norfolk 5 years ago because they did not want to split the Tory vote.

I know they are a small party, but I think I could have made a better PEB than the one I saw tonight.

One to read ... Day 16

My one story to read today is the revelation on Lib Dem Voice that the Conservative Party called in the Tory tabloids to co-ordinate today's press attacks on the Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg.

Sky News now firmly under Murdoch editorial control

I was amazed how many times Adam Boulton interrupted Nick Clegg tonight. I was astonished that Boulton then asked his own special question to Nick Clegg about the Telegraph slurs.

Then after the debate they  reported the result of only one post debate poll (the one that had Cameron ahead) and failed to report the statistics of the other two polls which had Clegg ahead and only said they were "close".

It seems that Sky news is now firmly under the editorial control of Murdoch. It certainly makes the case for why we need a BBC News Channel so that Murdoch cannot control our broadcast news media as his control of the printed press diminishes with the rise of the internet.

UPDATE - It is being widely reported on Twitter that the YouGov/Sun poll is unreliable as they started their poll before Clegg has actually spoken to sum up ! Absolutely shocking that SKY should report this poll and ignore the others.

No outright winner from tonight's debate.

Tonight's Prime Ministerial debate appears to have given no leader an outright win like last week.

YouGov had the results as Cameron 36%, Clegg 32% and Brown 28%.

ComRes had Clegg: 33%,  Brown: 30% and Cameron: 30%

Whilst Angus Reid have (in what is still a live poll) Clegg 35%, Cameron 32% and Brown 23%

So given the fact that there are three polls, guess which one the Rupert Murdoch owned Sky News are reporting ?

Yes, the YouGov poll paid for by The Sun.

I felt the debate was nowhere near as well run as last week. Sky seemed to abandon the remit which was that this debate was on foreign policy and Europe (why there was a question about The Pope was in this section is a mystery).

Adam Boulton kept interrupting Nick Clegg and started asking his own questions about The Telegraph headline today, which was outrageous.

The Telegraph reveals that Nick Clegg ...

... properly registered donations of £250 a month from three seperate businessmen to pay for a member of staff.

Sorry. Have I missed something here ? But it seems to be that the right wing pro Tory Telegraph is trying to say that something NIck Clegg offiicially declared back in 2006, was registered correctly, and went towards paying for a member of staff, is somehow wrong.

The adage of throwing enough mud at a wall and hoping some of it will stick seems to be the Tory press and Tory bloggers only weapons at the moment.

Nadine Dorries losing the plot ?

It appears that the Tories are starting to feel the pressure as it is reported HERE that Nadine Dorries rather "lost it" at a public meeting in her constituency when a Lib Dem councillor had the brazen nerve to walk in to the meeting to hear what she had to say.

So much for a more "open" style of politics that Dave promised.

Which Tory MP is using the same photo that he used 5 years ago ?

Anyone notice the similarlity in the pictures on these leaflets from 2005 and 2010 ?
This is the 2005 election leaflet from Keith Simpson

And this is the 2010 version.

Isn't it a little bit vain or even silly to be using a photo which is so obviously out of date ?

UK Airspace to open from 10pm

Some good news at last.

Desperate Dale grasping at straws

If  THIS is ths sort of lame attack the Tories are getting their bloggers to attack Nick Clegg about. it really is desperation time for the Tories.

Second Lib Dem leaflet in Broadland

Second Lib Dem leaflet in Broadland (well third in mine, but that's because my ward got an extra one !)

Labour leaflet in Broadland - A contender for the worst leaflet of the campaign anywhere ?

Surely this effort (did they put in any effort ?) is a contender for the worst leaflet produced by a political party in this election ?

It's like Ashes to Ashes or Life on Mars in that this sort of leaflet was last seen in this area back in the 1980s. Another sign surely that Labour have as good as given up here ? This leaflet went out in Acle but has not been seen anywhere else.

Lib Dems move in to first place in new poll

YouGov daily poll - Sun Apr 18


LIB DEMS 33% (29%) + 4%

CONSERVATIVES 32% (33%) -1%

LABOUR 26% (30%) -4%

The interesting thing is what happens now to Labour. Lots of people I know vote Labour only because it is the main way to stop the Tories where they live. With Labour now in freefall and looking defeated, what happens in the next week to the Labour vote could define politics for the next 20 years. Labour could (I stress could) fall away to 22/23% and the Lib Dems climb even higher or the Lib Dem vote could tail back to the high 20s (which would still be an amazing acheivement).

The interesting thing is the level of incredulity from Tory and Labour people on http://www.politicalbetting.com/ questioning the polling figures. I have never known the level of support we have been getting when campaigning anywhere outside of North Norfolk. In North Norfolk we used to work bloody hard for our vote (five or sic leaflets a year, even when there were no elections) and when elections came, canvassing was a joy. But today, just delivering in one of the Tories safest wards in Broadland, the response from people in their gardens, washing cars, etc, was just astonishing.

It might be a blip, but it's a pleasant one and something that Lib Dems have waited a long time for.

As I read on twitter earlier, Osborne (presumably George) told Rory Bremner his impression of Cameron needed more work. Apparently Rory Bremner said he was working on Clegg now, not Cameron !

Don't know if it's true, but its amusing.

One to read ... Day 11

Can I recommend Mark Pack's excellent analysis of the Lib Dem poll surge on Lib Dem Voice. 

A good balanced article with proper evidence related to history, not opinion.

Lib Dems second in new opinion poll

The figures are all here.

Lib Dems 30%, Tories 33% and Labour 28%.

First Lib Dem leaflet in Broadland

Here is the first Lib Dem leaflet that has been going out across Broadland. It's gone out in my ward (and the second leaflet too is 75% done, but I'll post that to my blog when I have 100% finished delivery).

First Tory leaflet out in Broadland

Very early to be receiving a Freepost delivered leaflet, in my opinion, and remember that for many people this may be their only leaflet of the campaign (if you live alone).

Three weeks without a leaflet until polling day is a long time to wait, and with the Tories bereft of local volunteers (as was witnessed by them shipping leafletters in from Brundall and further afield in the recent by-election I won in Taverham North), the chances of seeing a hand delivered Tory leaflet before the election is probably low.

From a design point of view, it seems very generic, the action shots are not good, too many feature the same jacket (buy a new jacket Mr Simpson !) and some of the issues he raises were issues under the last tory government (like our poor roads in Norfolk when the transport minister was a Norfolk Tory MP and did nothing !). Then again, I'm biased.

More, as you would expect, has been going out from the Lib Dems, so I will post that to this blog later. 

The final picture here is the fold out middle bit which opens up like a origami project.

Labour candidate in North West Norfolk opens his mouth and puts his foot in it

Three quotes from the Labour candidate Manish Sood which indicate why some Labour supporters in North West Norfolk have questioned the choice of candidate.

He feels that "The Queen should have more powers, people have forgotten - she is part of being British."

When asked if he is critical of the Labour Party when canvassing, he said: "People are unhappy. And I'm beginning to feel that the truth is the government doesn't like it. They are not prepared to change."


He added: "I know this is an unwinnable seat."

Methinks Mr Sood is not destined for greater things !

Nick Clegg wins the first debate

An ITV poll of 4000 voters has Nick Clegg as the clear winner of the first debate.

All I can say is well done Nick. He was great, confident, relaxed and had the best body language throughout.

The figures are

Sun/YouGov poll result - Clegg on 51%, Cameron 29%, Brown 19%


ITV poll - Clegg 43%, Cameron 26%, Brown 20%
I am so pleased.

Cameron's spin on the debates highlights how utterly vaccuous he is

David Cameron has tried to downplay the value of the three leaders debates by claiming without audience reaction and interaction they may be meaningless and sterile.

Of course, as the Lib Dem's have pointed out on the radio this morning, it was Cameron's team and the Tories who insisted on this sterile environment for the debates.

Isn't it just typical of how vaccuous Cameron is ? If he really wanted the debates to have more meaning, why were his team so keen to lock them down to be so restricted ? 

What will showing the debate in HD do for the party leaders ?

ITV are advertising that the first leaders debates will be shown on ITV HD. Whilst ITV are always short of content for their HD output and many might wonder what the point is of watching a TV debate in HD, it might be rather interesting for political geeks and those with a knowledge of the history of big political debates.

The famous debate that all leaders must have in the back of their minds when they are planning how they hope they will resonate with the electorate is the famous Nixon-Kennedy debate. The first debate between them saw Nixon turn up after a bout of illness, still suffering from an infected knee (which saw him walking painfully with a limp), and in an attempt to seem more controlled that Kennedy, saw him refuse to be "made up" by the TV company. Instead, his own team applied "lazy shave" to hide any 5 o'clock shadow, whilst Kennedy's team added make up to JFK to make him look well tanned. The result on screen was that Kennedy looked healthy whilst Nixon looked pale and gaunt.

Now it is often said and written that Nixon lost this debate because he was sweating profusely (something that will be very obvious on an HD TV tomorrow if any of the leaders to sweat ), but in truth, as a BBC documentary explained the other day, Nixon messed up by seeming to agree with Kennedy on too many points, leaving people thinking Kennedy was right and Nixon did not stand for anything different. With the argument gone that Kennedy was a risk to US safety, people voted for the charismatic JFK in large numbers despite Nixon supposedly having the better of later TV debates.

So will we learn anything in HD ? Arguably not. I think we all know what the leaders look like. I think Brown will look poor in HD, but he gaunt in standard definition so this will be no shock or surprise. Likewise, if the leaders are seen to sweat, will this win or lose votes ? I doubt it.

So whilst ITV may be excited about the debate being shown in HD, I can't see many people bothering because at the end of the day, it is the arguments and messages that are important, not the looks.

One to read ... Day 7

My one to read is .... Stephen Tall on Lib Dem Voice writes about Nick Clegg's confident performance against Jeremy Paxman and highlights too that David Cameron and Gordon Brown have chickened out of being interviewed by Paxman.

One to read ... Day 6

Today's offering is from Kiwiblog, and takes us through the Sunday papers editorials looking at the general election from New Zealand.

Contradictions of the Tory Marriage Tax proposal - Explained via a short film

Yes, I am sure I could have done better, but this has taken me hours to do. Enjoy, share, pass it on to others please. It certainly highlight the unfairness of the Tories plans and the Lib Dems simple alternative.

One to read ... Day 5

It's late so I will just point you to Tory blogger "The Daily Referendum" who has all the overnight opinion polls.

They all seem to have Lib Dems in the 16-21% range that we have been in for several weeks now, and little change for the others too.

My George Osborne YouTube Video Again

Since I spent a whole evening doing this video back in the Autumn, I thought I'd bring it to everyone's attention again.

Enjoy (unless you are a Tory)

Where is the Labour candidate in Broadland ? Have they given up ?

Not only have Labour chosen a candidate for Broadland that nobody has heard of and has done no noticable campaigning across the constituency, but at a public meeting last night to discuss one of the main issues in the constituency (The Rackheath Eco Town which the Tory council is forcing on the area), The Tory candidate was there, Lib Dem candidate Dan Roper was there, nut absolutely no sign of the Labour Party candidate.

You have to ask, have they given up already ?

One to read ... Day 4

My "One to read" today is Stephens Linlithgow Journal, who explains that if City Bankers are backing Cameron;s tax plans we ought to remember that we are in this mess in the first place because .. well ... because of city bankers ???

Read it HERE.

How much could you save under the Lib Dems ?

Under Liberal Democrat proposals to raise the tax threshold, 10% of workers in Norfolk would become exempt from paying income tax.

Using South Norfolk as an example, the lowest paid 10% earn £7996 per year.

The Lib Dem proposals to raise the tax threshold (by asking the wealthiest to pay more) would ease the burden on 3,800 people in South Norfolk alone -tthe equivalent to a place the size of Long Stratton.

Across the whole of Norfolk, 27,800 people would be taken out of tax altogether – or 11.68% of the working population.

Under the Lib Dem tax plans, the average person would save £700 per year in their tax bill, no one will have to pay tax on the first £10,000 of their income.

This will save the average working age taxpayer £700 each. Homes with two workers could be up to £1400 a year better off.

These tax cuts will be paid for by measures including closing tax loopholes exploited by the rich, taxes on pollution and a new levy on houses worth more than £2 million.

Lib Dem candidate for South Norfolk Jacky Howe says, “Ordinary people are paying far more than their fair share while the rich pay less than they should. Our plan will put money back into the pockets of those who need it most, pensioners and working people on low incomes.”

Top Tory blogger raises concerns about Tories National Citizen Service

I don't always agree with that most cerebral of tory bloggers "Letters from A Tory", but I tend to agree more often than I disagree. So I should bring everyone's attention to his excellent analysis of David Cameron's National Citizen Service.

VAT-Man and VAT-Man

One to read ... Day 3

My  one story to read today is from the Tory Blogger Dizzy Thinks, who points out what a total imbecile Labour Minister Stephen Timms is.

Sadly Mr Timms has a very safe seat and despite his clear lack of any knowledge on IT matters, he was one of those who pushed through (with Tory support) the Digital Economy Bill last night.

More evidence of a Tory VAT increase

Even top people in the pro Tory Tax Payers Alliance (TPA) are of the opinion that a VAT rise under the Tories is inevitable.

Read more about it HERE on the ever exellent Liberal Burblings Blog.

Looks like the Tories will trample the recovery under foot with their VAT Tax Bombshell.

Hustings and Campaigning News - Let me know what's happening in your street

Everyone knows I am a Lib Dem, but in the Norwich North by-election last year this blog became the main local source of on the ground election news, with this blog predicting long before election day that the national news obsession with the Green's was massively overstated.

I also made a point of publishing leaflets that I received and giving minor parties a chance to make their case to the electorate.

So with the general election now properly underway, I want your stories, be you a candidate, an activist or a voter who has been called on by a politician or has a bit of political news or gossip.

Now I will not publish salacious rubbish or unsubstantiated rumour, but I do want your local political stories from Norfolk and beyond. So if you have anything you think might be of interest, not matter what party you support, e-mail me at nichstarling@gmail.com or twitter @norfolkblogger .

Tories to put VAT up

Loving these posters today.

Tory VAT Bombshell

Another poster ... detect a theme ?

With thanks to http://twitter.com/LibDemPress

New Lib Dem poster

Effective, and a great deal better than the Labour "Gene Hunt" posters.

Thanks to the New Statesman Website and @sarabedford on Twitter

Same old Tories ... they always look after their own

It is being reported that one of David Cameron's key advisors is heavily involved in a company that is set to gain from proposed cuts the Tories are pledging to make.

Never let it be said that the Tories don't take care of their own.

But hey, don't expect the NHS under the Tories to look after you.

The less than great ignored slogan - Cameron drops his campaign slogan

Andrew Neil on This Week on the BBC tonight (this morning) reports that the Tories have dropped the Cameron slogan "The great ignored", presumably after focus groups ahve shown the slogan was not working with the electorate.

What a way to start your campaign with a slogan you drop after one day !

One to read ... Day 2

My daily pick of the General Election stories from the blogosphere again takes me to a local blogger, the excellent Malcolm Redfellow who tells us a lot more about David Cameron's choice of words in his Tory campaign launch.

I have to say, Malcolm's Blog is always entertaining and truly educational.

Desperate Greens go touting for interviews

Guess who was snapped by Guido Fawkes "Guy News" on College Green outside of the Houses of Parliament appearing to be seeking someone, anyone, who would interview them yesterday ?

Step forward Adrian Ramsay and Rupert Read of the Green Party. You know, the Green Party who like to appear to be different from everyone else (although if you live in Norwich you will know all they do is oppose everything and make uncosted promises about how everything will be better under the Greens).

Desperate, desperate stuff and possibly as vain as any politician could be.

Blogging and elections - Your views required

BBC Radio Norfolk phoned me up today as "one of the pre-eminant bloggers in the region" (I exagerate, they never said that) to discuss the role that I thought blogging would play in this election and campaigning. I am going in to do a piece with them next week about this and I have my own views of the relative unimportance of blogs.

Aside from the Uber Bloggers (Iain Dale, et al), do the rest of us make a difference ?

Blogs are, I know, a very good way of getting news out fast, which was evident from Chris Grayling and the Tory homophobia stories from last weekend. But aside from getting news out quickly to a very small audience, does blogging really affect mainstream opinion ?

I feel that bloggers are famous in their own back yards and that for 99% of the population blogs are completely unimportant, but for 1% of people, who had mostly already got strong party affiliations, they are important as a means of legitimised ranting. So in many ways blogs do little to really influence people.

But what do you think ? Leave some comments and let me have your views on how blogging will make a difference in this election.

One to read ... Day 1

I will, thoughout the general election campaign be trying to link daily to one story about the election from a blog you may have missed.

So for Day 1, can I recommend local Norwich based UKIPer Michael Heaver who tells us five seats we need to watch out for UKIP in.

A "Spoonerism" would make this headline correct

Just one slip of the tongue and this headline would have been perfect.

Is it yet another example of Vince Cable's dry humour ?

Note : Definition of "Spoonerism"

A quick look at the election battleground in the Eastern Region

The History

The Eastern region, along with the South East is the very bedrock of Conservative Strength in the UK. Going back to the 1987 General Election, Labour held just two seats in the whole region (Cambridge and Norwich South) , and despite much hyped expectations of gains in 1992, Basildon stayed Tory, Norwich North too, whilst only Ipswich was gained by Labour.

In the same period, the Liberal presence in the region was invisible on parliamentary maps. Sloppiness and an overconfidence in Clement Freud's old Isle of Ely seat, saw the Liberals wiped out in the Eastern Region, and despite some good individual showings, the Liberal Democrats were nowhere near winning any seats in the Eastern Region in 1992. Perhaps the most notable results for the party was the small increase in the Party's vote in North Norfolk, with Norman Lamb as a first time candidate, when in other Norfolk seats the Lib Dems did poorly, with many slipping to third place.

1997 saw a mass collapse of the Tory vote across the region, with Labour winning seats in some very unlilkely places. Jumping from third place in Harwich to win comfortably, whilst North West Norfolk going in to the Labour camp was a surprise to many Labour activists. Some might argue that it was a surprise to the newly elected Labour MP too as he was also re-elected as a County Councillor in another part of Norfolk on the same day.

Significantly for the Lib Dems, the newly redrawn boundaries of the Colchester seat gave them their first real target seat in the region, and with lots of targeted help, proper target seat support and two visits from party leader Paddy Ashdown, the breakthrough came with Bob Russell being elected as the first ever Lib Dem MP in the Eastern region. The two other seats the Lib Dems had classed as targets also got jolly close, with North Norfolk Lib Dems turning a safe tory seat with amajority of 10,000 in to a marginal with a small 1292 vote majority for the Tories, and in Southend West, the seat Tory David Amess had done the "Chicken Run" too from his Billericay seat he held narrowly in 1992, the Lib Dems missed out by a similar margin.

The 2001 General Election saw few changes. Labour lost out in North West Norfolk, which failed to surprise many , and saw further target seats fail in their bid to overcome small Tory majorities (Mid Norfolk comes to mind). The Lib Dems, however, did make progress with Norman Lamb winning North Norfolk for the Lib Dems after a long count, bundle counts and incorrect and unofficial claims that the Tories had won. Despite a large rise in the Tory vote in North Norfolk, Norman Lamb leapfrogged David Prior to win by 483 votes, setting up North Norfolk Lib Dems for an even bigger victory over the Tory Iain Dale in 2005, the same year in which the Lib Dems won their third seat in the region, Cambridge.

2005 was not a good year for Labour in the Eastern Region. In the London fringe, Braintree, St Albans and Welwyn and Hatfield were all lost, with Harwich and Peterborough swinging to the Tories and falling in to the blue camp. Whilst this was going on, former safe Labour seats became quite tight affairs. Places like Harlow saw Labour just cling on whilst Harwich swung all the way to the Tories with Doublas Carswell being elected.

So where is the battleground in 2010 ?

New boundaries favour the Lib Dems in the region this time in a way that they did in 1997 when the new Colchester seat was created.

Chelmsford's boundaries have been re-drawn, with the new seat based firmly on the District Council area that the Lib Dems do well in and the more suburban parts of Chelmsford where the Tories doing well being moved out. If the Lib Dems can fight a campaign like they did in recent local elections where they made significant gains in recent years from the Tories in the Chelmsford Parliamentary seat, then this seat above all others should be very interesting.

Broadland is a new name on the constituency map, but it includes a part of what was Norman Lamb's North Norfolk seat and also parts of what was Norwich North, which both sandwich the Eastern parts of what used to be Mid Norfolk. This is notionally a Tory seat and Keith Simpson, a largely anonynous Tory MP who is currently MP for Mid Norfolk is to contest the seat for the Tories. The Lib Dems have become better organsised in this seat, winning a string of local council by-elections in aras that are always traditionally Tory (Taverham, Wroxham and Buxton). Although it would be a big ask for the Lib Dems to win this on one go, it is not beyond the bounds of probability of the Labour vote tactically switches to the Lib Dems, who are now in a clear second place. In Dan Roper the Lib Dems have a very able candidate and this seat is certainly one to watch.

Depending on what your interpretation of the Eastern Region is, some people might think that Watford, as part of Hertfordshire, just about qualifies. This seat provides on paper a what might appear incorrectly to be three way fight, but that is misleading because the Tories, who were in a very clear second place after the 2001 General Election and who held the seat up to 1997 slipped back to third place in 2005. The Lib Dems, who now have a massive majority on the local council there and have the elected mayor, saw a dramatic rise in their vote in 2005 and must see this as a very winnable seat this time with a Labour majority over them of only around 1000 votes.

The Lib Dem's other main target is Norwich South, currently held by Charles Clarke, former Labour Home Secretary and minister for various other things too. The Lib Dems cut Clarke's majority massively last time and must fancy their chances here this time. Although local government election results have seen large gains for the Greens in recent years, history shows that in seats with strong green votes in local elections, their vote rarely transfers to them in General Elections and often votes Lib Dem. This is crtainly true in the Oxford seats where the Green Wards at a local level proved to have the highest general election votes for the Lib Dems. Certainly one to watch.

Looking for Labour targets is difficult. The key aim for Labour will be to hold what they have, particularly in places like Harlow and Watford. It seems unlikely that Labour will make any gains at all given that their strategy has, in recent months, to concentrate very much on holding what they have. In seats like Stevenage, where Barbara Follett had a strong personal vote and had built an effective local organisation, her decision to stand down might cause problems for them, but I would expect Labour to hang on there.

One seat that can expect a lot of Tory attention is Ipswich, which requires the same swing that Cameron needs in order to have an overall majority. Given the polls you'd expect the Tories to win this. Their biggest problem might be their deeply uninspiring candidate who, if the local news today was anything to go by, could bore for Britain.

Other Tory targets will include Great Yarmouth and holding Norwich North which in the case of the latter seat, has seen a lot of Labour effort in recent weeks in the wake of the Tory county council's decision to turn of street lights with little or no consultation. Chloe Smith had a lot of help from elsewhere last year and with the seat now not including the best bits for the Tories (Drayton and Taverham) could give Labour real hope of a surprise. I doubt that Labour will win, but Norwich North could revert to Labour early on in any Tory decline post 2010.

So in summary, I would expect the East of England to look pretty similar to last time. The Tories will make some gains, with some of these being made on the back of newly created seats like Witham and Broadland (if they can hold off the Lib Dems here). I would also expect a couple of Lib Dem gains and a couple of near misses (St Albans ?). Labour, I suspect, will lose just a few seats overall. But for all the effort, I am not expecting fireworks in the East. The election will be won and lost in the South and the Midlands, not in the East.

I expect one or two comments about seats I have missed, so would appreciate your comments and views.

Update : As has been pointed out in comments, Luton South and Bedford are also seats that provide a lot of interest given recent events.

Luton South is at a council level a Lib Dem target and with the scandal involving Margaret Moran's second home claims, the Labour Party will do well to hold the seat. The major problem for the Lib Dems is that they start in third place having failed to overcome the Tories last time who remain in second place. Given that until 1997 Luton South was a Tory seat, the Tories might expect to be the main challengers here this time. Again though, the Tories are not in the shape they might expect to be with a shaky local organisation and little in the way of local council success on which to hang any claims of being the main alternatives. Given the plethora of independents seeking to muddy the waters including the dreadful Esther Rantzen, whose stated reasons for standing appear to me to have all gone, except seemingly the number one reason (her ego), it seems that this seat will provide some interest to the press.

As for Bedford, the Tories failed to win the mayoral the election and the Lib Dems now have the elected mayor (the excellent Dave Hodgson who I know well). This has given the Lib Dems a real shot in the arm in a seat which in many ways should have been a Lib Dem target long before Labour won it in 1997. I would expect Labour to lose and the contest to be between the Lib Dems and the Tories.

BBC East get its political coverage wrong AGAIN - WHAT THE HELL IS WRONG WITH THEM !

BBC East just showed the eletion map of East Anglia, and guess what ? It's wrong.

Apparently Colchester is now a Tory seat. This will come as a surprise to Lib Dem MP Bob Russell who has held the seat since 1997.

Yet again, after previous numerous mistakes in their political coverage. BBC East show themselves not to be fit for purpose.

Vote for real change in Norfolk - The UK General Election is on !

The election has been officially called for May 6th and we now face several weeks of campaigning to decide who our local MPs will be for the next few years and in Norfolk we have a real chance to make a difference.

In North Norfolk we have a fine example of everything a good MP should be with Lib Dem MP being an MP that people of all parties admire. For me personally he has been an inspiration and we desperately need more MPs like him, untainted and free of any involvement in the expenses scandals and standing up for local people in a way that gives people confidences in politics.

In Broadland, we have Lib Dem candidate Dan Roper, who inherits a large chunk of Lib Dem North Norfolk and who, on the back of by-election wins in formerly safe Tory seats in Wroxham and Taverham in recent months, now has a real chance of causing an upset. Hardly anyone locally knows who the Tory MP is and this area definitely needs an MP in the Norman Lamb mould and Dan Roper is that man.

The other hot prospect for the Lib Dems is Norwich South. Now the press will want to make a story here and will relentlessly talk up the Green's chances, as they did in the Norwich North by-election (where they came 5th), but the fact is that the Lib Dems jumped up from 3rd to a close second last time and in Simon Wright (who I was councillor with in Fakenham North) who also worked for Norman Lamb in North Norfolk, Norwich South have a genuine champion, someone who has had a job in the real world, someone who lives locally, is Norfolk through and through and really cares about the area.

In Norwich South at the last General Election seats where the Green's were embedded at a local level clearly voted on national issues in the General Election vote and it seems clear that Green's know that a vote for the Greens at the general election would be a wasted vote and will let Labour back in.

Across Norfolk, we can be the vanguard for change, we can offer a new type of politics, a real fresh start and not a return to the old Tory ways that saw us suffer so much in the past.

So on May 6th vote for real change. Vote Lib Dem

P.S. I should add that there are other great Lib Dems standing across Norfolk, and I ought to give mention to Jacky Howe in South Norfolk who was elected in Fakenham as a councillor in 2003 when I was her agent, so I certainly wish her lots of luck too. The Lib Dems start in a clear second place in South Norfolk and a Labour vote there will be a wasted vote.

Which party has been using cancer drugs as an election issue and has been caught telling fibs ? Step forward ...

Oh come on, we all know that the Tories will say just about anything to win the election. And after their attacks on Gordon Brown for misleading parliament last week you might expect the Tories would have attempted to take the moral high ground.

Sadly not.

It seems the Tories are prepared to even tell lies about cancer treatment and cancer drugs in order to win votes.

Surely trying to win votes by scaremangering ill people is a new all time low ?

Lib Dems go for football fans vote

Don Foster MP has written very sensibly for Lib Dem voice about the need to consider having safe standing areas at football grounds. The fact that this would also make economic sense for fans and football clubs alike seems eminently sensible.

You can read more about it HERE.

Unions fail to organise drinking session in a brewery

Unite managed to mess up the simple process of issuing one ballot to each of their members in their strike ballot before Christmas.

Now the rail unions have failed in this when organising a rail strike ballot.

Next up for the unions is an attempt to organise a drinking session in a brewery.

Who will campaign against the Tories "Sky Tax" ?

After reading an article the other day about the Tories wanting to remove Ofcom's power to restrict and control the virtual monopoly Sky have in the pay tv sector in the UK, I wrote about the squalid deal the Tories appear to me to have done in order to get News International's support.

Now with Ofcom making recommendations on Sky and the fact that they must cut the wholesale prices of their sports content, one wonders if political parties will take the issue on and fight against the Tories plans for a "Sky tax". After all, if the Tories have their way and remove Ofcom's power to control Sky, Sky could continue to charge what they like. With estimates yesterday that a reduction in Sky's charges could save wholesale purchasers £7.00 a month, with at least £5.00 in savings for customers, that equates to a saving of £60 per year for each house who would be subscribed to Sky Sports.

So who will campaign against the Tories' "Sky Tax". After all, the Tories are campaigning against the £6 levy on phone bills to pay for high speed broadband, so a £60 charge seems somewhat hypocritical of the Tories, but it seems to be the price the consumer will have to pay for The Sun and the News of the World to back the Tories.