Falling in the polls ? Nobody should be surprised

As many no, I am no fan of the coalition deal. But it appears that my worst fears might be proved right about the capitulation of Lib Dem MPs to David Cameron when you see that Lib Dem poll ratings are falling whilst those for the Tories are increasing.

It is an obvious and logical conclusion for electors to decide that if the coalition does it a good job then they should support the larger partner in the coalition because as the larger partner, they deserve more praise than the junior partner. Similarly, it is hard for the Lib Dems to claim that people should not vote Tory as the Lib Dems are backing the Tories.

Don't be surprised to see Lib Dem rating fall further in the near future.

Lib Dems move in to first place in new poll

YouGov daily poll - Sun Apr 18


LIB DEMS 33% (29%) + 4%

CONSERVATIVES 32% (33%) -1%

LABOUR 26% (30%) -4%

The interesting thing is what happens now to Labour. Lots of people I know vote Labour only because it is the main way to stop the Tories where they live. With Labour now in freefall and looking defeated, what happens in the next week to the Labour vote could define politics for the next 20 years. Labour could (I stress could) fall away to 22/23% and the Lib Dems climb even higher or the Lib Dem vote could tail back to the high 20s (which would still be an amazing acheivement).

The interesting thing is the level of incredulity from Tory and Labour people on http://www.politicalbetting.com/ questioning the polling figures. I have never known the level of support we have been getting when campaigning anywhere outside of North Norfolk. In North Norfolk we used to work bloody hard for our vote (five or sic leaflets a year, even when there were no elections) and when elections came, canvassing was a joy. But today, just delivering in one of the Tories safest wards in Broadland, the response from people in their gardens, washing cars, etc, was just astonishing.

It might be a blip, but it's a pleasant one and something that Lib Dems have waited a long time for.

As I read on twitter earlier, Osborne (presumably George) told Rory Bremner his impression of Cameron needed more work. Apparently Rory Bremner said he was working on Clegg now, not Cameron !

Don't know if it's true, but its amusing.

Lib Dems second in new opinion poll

The figures are all here.

Lib Dems 30%, Tories 33% and Labour 28%.

Marginals Poll misses the point

The poll of marginal seat published today seems to miss the point and be something of a throwback to the old two party swingometer last seen to be effective in 1979.

Virtually all the seats show a swing between Tory and labour (interestingly with a lower swing to the Tories in 2009 than in 2008). But in Lib Dem target seats, in particular those seats where the Lib Dems are in a clear second place and the Tories a distant third, they are still working out Tory - Labour swings.

If this poll is to be believed, they think there will be not one gain made by the Lib Dems from Labour. Considering that the Lib Dems made limited gains from Labour in 2005 with Labour much higher in the polls in the Lib Dems slightly lower, this shows this poll is wide of the mark.

Take a look for yourself here.

Lib Dems set to overtake Labour in opinion polls ?

With labour increasingly looking like they will come bottom in the popular vote amongst the three main parties on Thursday, a new opinion poll from Communicate Research (reported via Iain Dale) shows Labour on 26% and the Lib Dems on 20%. This shows Labour down 5% and the Lib Dems up 3%.

If Labour suffer a real trouncing on Thursday and the news continues to get worse there is a real chance that the next set of opinion polls could have the Lib Dems in second place and Labour in a real crisis.

Lib Dems up again in fresh ICM opinion poll

Doesn't last summer seem like a very long time ago ?

Labour had a big opinion poll lead and the Lib Dems were languishing down at between 12-14% in the opinion polls. how things can change.

In the wake of the Labour party funding crisis and the Lib Dem leadership contest, the lib Dems have made a steady climb up the polls, and the latest poll has more good news for the Lib Dems too.

The ICM opinion poll for the News of the World showed Labour had slumped by five points to 30%, with the Tories up one to 41%. The Liberal Democrats were up one point on 19%, according to ICM polling on Wednesday and Thursday.

With a new leader in place in just a few weeks time, whoever takes over has a really strong base on which to build. the aim now should be to overtake Labour. Given their trials and tribulations, this is not an impossible task.

Tories and Lib Dems up in latest opinion poll

The latest Communicate Research poll has the Lib Dems up to 16% whilst the Tories have a clear lead over Labour.

New opinion polls has Lib Dems down to 11%

Perhaps not surprisingly given the month's events, a new Telegraph opinion poll has the Lib Dems down to 11% and the Tories on 41%, 3% ahead of Labour.

My guess is once a new Lib Dem leader is in place our poll rating will soon improve, but that is just a guess.

And for all those predicting a Lib Dem wipeout - Read the facts (and weep)

Well done to the excellent Lib Dem blogger Stephen Tall who has written a balanced and properly researched piece about the current Lib Dem poll ratings and kills the myth that the Lib Dems are set for some sort of electoral wipeout, based on a few opinion polls.

Tories, in particular, have very short memories of previous elections, and constantly talk about Lib Dems being in trouble, and usually end up with egg on their faces.

New opinion polls show smaller Labour lead

Tomorrow's polls will make for tough reading in 10 Downing Street, but crucially they still all show a Labour lead in a week of almost wall to wall Tory press stories.

An ICM poll for the Guardian showed Labour's lead slashed to just one point, down seven points from last month. Labour are on 39 percent with the Conservatives on 38. A Populus poll for the Times has Labour's lead tightening to three points, with Labour on 39 points and the Tories on 36. Whilst a YouGov poll for Channel 4 television shows Labour's lead slipping to four points from 11 points. Labour was on 40 percent to the Conservatives' 36.

Again, no reports I saw listed Lib Dem percentages as yet. But for all those who get excited about "Lib Dem whipeouts", going in to the 2001 election the Lib Dems were on just 13 % in the polls.

Whilst the drop in labour's lead will hearten the Tories, a fortnight of government announcements, a big giveaway promised in the Comprehensive Spending Review and further "spin" from Gordon Brown could see Labour's lead open up again.

We will see.

New opinion Polls give a 10 and 11 point lead to Labour.

A comment from an anonymous source on Iain Dale's blog has made mention of tomorrow's opinion polls.

"Two polls out tomorrow. Yougov labour 11% lead, populus Labour 10% lead, don't you think you should be commenting on that Iain."

I don't know if this is true, but it kills the idea of last week's 11% lead being a rogue poll.

Grammar Schools Row hurts Tories and Cameron in new Telegraph opinion poll

A new poll has been printed in the Sunday Telegraph and aside from the headline figures, it raises some questions for the Tories and David Cameron.

Firstly, lots of Tories will now jump in and attack me stating the poll still has the Tories well ahead of Labour (5% ahead- 37% to 32%). But the poll also asks important questions about leadership abilities and in this area Gordon Brown scores higher than Cameron, and that has to be a worry to the Tories.

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Tory Strategy Not Working

For many months the Tories have been running a strategy of trying to undermine Gordon Brown's credibility and trying to attack Gordon Brown as not being up to the job. What is clear is that this strategy has failed. Trying to torpedo him before he gets to be Prime Minister, fatally weakening him before he had a chance to take power might have made some sense but the Grammar Schools debacle and the generally positive press Gordon Brown has received in recent weeks has seen Labour's support holding fast.

Voters Perceptions

Again, the Tories will point to a 5% lead, but the interesting statistic in the poll is that a majority (a clear 51% and 17% more than the Tories %) of voters still think Labour will have the most seats in the next parliament. Voters are drawn to winners, and if Mr Cameron starts to look like a loser, and already the electorate are seeing him as that or else more a majority would be expecting the Tories to be the winners of the next elections, then his gloss might start to tarnish. There is, for all the Tories longing for it, no sense of the inevitability of a Tory government that existed for Labour in 1995-97.

Lib Dem Love Bombing

The poll does have good news for the Lib Dems. A 1% rise in their poll rating in what has not been a good month for press coverage for the Lib Dems has to be seen as good news for them. The Tory policy of "Love Bombing", where the Tories try to steal the Lib Dems thunder appears to have, if you excuse the pun, bombed !

Grammar Schools Debacle

The other thing the Tories will have to show concern about is the way the Grammar schools issue has simply not gone away and how this has, according to the Telegraph, led to dissatisfaction amongst Tory backbench MP's, councillors and campaigners. Blair from 1994-1997 keep the backbenchers on side, kept activists motivated and was not being sniped at. It appears for the Tories the idea of slagging of your leader, whatever his poll ratings, is a habit they just cannot give up.

In summary

After the local elections successes for the Tories, this poll is something to mull over. Yes, a 5% lead is still good, but remember that Neil Kinnock was popular and had a lead in 1990. A change of leader from the Tories (the Chancellor), seen as uncharismatic and boring, saw the Tories fortunes change in 1992. A lesson for the Tories there I think.

Populus Poll - Lib Dems up two points

In a poll that spells bad news for Labour, with their support slipping to 29%, the Lib Dems can take cheer as the party rises 2% to 20% in the Populus survey for The Times.

Guardian/ICM opinion poll :Bad news for the Lib Dem doom merchants

If anyone here reads any of the political blogs in any detail you will see that there is always a large group of Conservatives trying to "talk up" two things that have never happened :

1) That a Lib Dem MP will defect to the Tories

2) A bad opinion poll means impending doom for the Lib Dems.

Funnily enough, they have been talking about a Lib Dem defection since 2001 and have been talking about the Lib Dems suffering in the polls since 1990 (when when we were at 5% in the polls).

Only last month with the Lib Dems at 18% in some polls, the Tories were "cock a hoop" that this was the end for the Lib Dems. Now, one month later, the Liberal Democrats are up 5% to 23% in the opinion polls.

So bad news this months for all those Tories. "You're all doomed", as Private Frazer from Dad's army would say, but not this month.