10/03/2009

Marginals Poll misses the point

The poll of marginal seat published today seems to miss the point and be something of a throwback to the old two party swingometer last seen to be effective in 1979.

Virtually all the seats show a swing between Tory and labour (interestingly with a lower swing to the Tories in 2009 than in 2008). But in Lib Dem target seats, in particular those seats where the Lib Dems are in a clear second place and the Tories a distant third, they are still working out Tory - Labour swings.

If this poll is to be believed, they think there will be not one gain made by the Lib Dems from Labour. Considering that the Lib Dems made limited gains from Labour in 2005 with Labour much higher in the polls in the Lib Dems slightly lower, this shows this poll is wide of the mark.

Take a look for yourself here.

4 comments:

Antony said...

That isn't correct Nich, re-read the report.

Norfolk Blogger said...

The report clearly shows no Lib Dem gains at all. This is absolute rubbish and discredits the report.

Anonymous said...

Nich - it does show gains (I'll let you find it before telling you - like any good teacher I'm not doing the work for you!!) but also shows losses. a net loss of around 20 seats may not be something you want to acknowledge but it might be the result.

Anonymous said...

The only swings to the Libs or from them are in Lib held seats. In some seats where the Tories poll less than 10% of the vote, they are suggesting seings to the Tories of 10% yet the Lib Dems in these seats are in a clear second place and they give no swing at all to the Libs at all. Dems.

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