Guardian/ICM opinion poll :Bad news for the Lib Dem doom merchants

If anyone here reads any of the political blogs in any detail you will see that there is always a large group of Conservatives trying to "talk up" two things that have never happened :

1) That a Lib Dem MP will defect to the Tories

2) A bad opinion poll means impending doom for the Lib Dems.

Funnily enough, they have been talking about a Lib Dem defection since 2001 and have been talking about the Lib Dems suffering in the polls since 1990 (when when we were at 5% in the polls).

Only last month with the Lib Dems at 18% in some polls, the Tories were "cock a hoop" that this was the end for the Lib Dems. Now, one month later, the Liberal Democrats are up 5% to 23% in the opinion polls.

So bad news this months for all those Tories. "You're all doomed", as Private Frazer from Dad's army would say, but not this month.


Tom Papworth said...

The doom-mongers are guilty (and perhaps you are, here, too) of reading too much into individual poll results.

In the last few months our polling position has fluctuated wildly. What matters is trend, and I'm keen to see what happens when (if) the new Lib Dem campaigns begin to bite.

Norfolk Blogger said...

I am not over egging the latest poll, berely pointing out that it will shut a few Tories up for a while.

Tories seem to think that getting less than 20% is the end of the world. Some forget that 15% was a stunningly good poll for the party as recently as 6 years ago.

Iain Dale said...

Incorrect. You got 23% in one poll. Not polls. One poll does not a summer make... er.... I think it is remarkable that the libdems constantly poll 18-22% after the year they had.

Norfolk Blogger said...

As I have said Iain, I'm not making a song and dance over this, I merely point out that the Tories do so over every "bad" poll and then go strangely silent until the next bad poll two months or so later.