Marginals Poll misses the point

The poll of marginal seat published today seems to miss the point and be something of a throwback to the old two party swingometer last seen to be effective in 1979.

Virtually all the seats show a swing between Tory and labour (interestingly with a lower swing to the Tories in 2009 than in 2008). But in Lib Dem target seats, in particular those seats where the Lib Dems are in a clear second place and the Tories a distant third, they are still working out Tory - Labour swings.

If this poll is to be believed, they think there will be not one gain made by the Lib Dems from Labour. Considering that the Lib Dems made limited gains from Labour in 2005 with Labour much higher in the polls in the Lib Dems slightly lower, this shows this poll is wide of the mark.

Take a look for yourself here.

The Tories keep very strange company - Are they endorsing a homophobic rag ?

Iain Dale highlights the Daily Mail's attitude towards gay Tory candidates and is going to the Press Complaints Commission to complain (quite rightly so in my opinion).

Tomorrow the Conservative Party chooses to use the Daily Mail to publicise their new proposals on caring for the elderly.

So what is the Tory Party doing ? Are they endorsing the views of The Daily Mail ?

Two gains for the Lib Dems in Broadland constituency

The Lib Dem target seat of Broadland received a timely boost yesterday when two local council gains were made in the constituency.

In Wroxham, a large rural ward on Broadland District Council the Lib Dem vote was up by more than 50% to snatch the seat the Tories expected to pick up easily. This seat was won by the Tories in 1998, and although the councillor later sat as an independent, he was never known for being anything other than a Con-dependent and was not often opposed in elections by Tory candidates.

In the other election, the Lib Dems gained Walsingham from the North Norfolk independent group after the sad death of Cllr Tom Moore. I knew Tom when I was on North Norfolk council and he was a genuine and popular independent councillor. Again the Lib Dem vote was up significantly (over 30% up).

With Broadland Lib Dems on something of a roll after other recent by-election wins in Aylsham and Buxton, there should be no shortage of good candidates wanting to stand to become the Lib Dem PPC. Many people will know that the former PPC transferred her candidature to Norwich North.

As for the Council representation after this, North Norfolk Council now has 31 Lib Dems (Tories on 15 with one vacancy) and Broadland has 11 Lib Dems, the Tories on 34.

In terms of district councillors within each of the Broadland and North Norfolk constituencies, the number for Broadland is 17 Lib Dems to 18 Tories. In North Norfolk it is 23 Lib Dems to 15 Tories.

Lib Dem gain in Wroxham (Broadland)

Just received a text telling me that the Liberal Democrats gained the wroxham seat on broadland district council from an independent Tory with 63% of the vote. The same ward is held by the Tories at county level and also has another Tory district councillor.

The Con-dependent who died had been elected as a Tory and was re-elected with the Tories failing to field a full slate. He was also known to be a Tory party member, so in many ways this is gain from the Tories.

So much for "The Sun" effect.

Weekly flu update

Apparently the laughable Sir Liam Donaldson believes that there is a chance that flu numbers could "shoot up" in the winter. In further news he also believes that the Pope is Catholic, bears do defecate in the woods and that people in glass houses shouldn't throw stones.

Everytime this man opens his mouth it make you wonder why he is in his job. Three weeks ago he said we were "tantalisingly close to beating swine flu". At the start of the holidays he wondered why it was that flu numbers were falling, seemingly unaware of the schools breaking up).

As for my question of the week, why is it that the flu vaccine passed its final approval phase last week, but will not start being given to people for two more weeks. In effect there is a three week gap between approval and the start of the process. The vaccine is ready, hundreds of thousands of doses have already been manufactured, doctors don't need all there doses of vaccine in order to start, they just need to start doing injections for the vulnerable as soon as possible yet we have to wait for three weeks.

Just to put this in to context, if this were H5N1 flu (which has a kill rate of 60%), a delay of three weeks and another 10-12 days in order for the vaccine to take effect, would see (at current infection rates) 14,000 infections in week one, 22,000 in week two, 33,000 in week three and 50,000 in week four. A total of 121,000 extra infections and an nearly 75,000 people dying needlessly.

Okay, so this is not H5N1, but our flu pandemic plans are based on it being H5N1. So the government's own uselessness in getting the vaccine out would kill 75,000 people !

Sickening hypocrisy

I note today that The Sun has highlighted a dossier of issues where Labour has "got it wrong".

What The Sun fails to say though is that whilst all these policies were being introduced, The Sun was in total support and failed to raise an objection.

Sickening hypocrisy from The Sun.

Nobody likes glory hunters on the make

So the glory hunters are at it again. Mr Murdoch's weight has shift back to the Tories and "The Sun" is backing David Cameron. Is anybody shocked or surprised ?

Like a seven year old wearing a Manchester United top, the Sun follows the winning team. Forget principles, forget standing for something or arguing your point, The Sun is used as a tool merely to curry favour with whoever is going to hold power.

And what will the price be ? With Recent attacks by James Murdoch on the BBC, will the Murdoch "pay off" be a dismemberment of the BBC ? Will it be a free hand given to Sky ? Don't you just know that there will be a price to be paid for this.

But don't worry, Cameron has the backing of a paper which told lies about Hillsborough, which told lies about Elton John, and is prepared to sell its soul to anyone who looks like they can win.

Receiving the support of "The Sun" is like being patted on the back and told "Well done" by a serial liar and muck spreader. You must be very proud Mr Cameron.

Party Theme Songs For Conference

Details of a survey conducted by PRS for Music have been sent to me by email revealing the UK’s vote for party conference songs.

Last year the Gordon Brown walked on stage with Jackie Wilson’s Your Love Keeps Lifting Me Higher and Higher. However, in the survey of over 1,000 people, Elton John’s Sorry seems to be the hardest word was voted as most popular suggestion for the entrance of the Prime Minister this year.

Labour Party – most voted songs:
Sorry seems to be the hardest word – Elton John
Tragedy – Steps
So Sad – George Harrison
Die Another Day – Madonna

Conservative Party – most voted songs:
Money, Money, Money – ABBA
I could be so good for you – Dennis Waterman
We are the champions – Queen
The future’s so bright, I gotta wear shades – Timbuk3

Liberal Democrat Party – most voted songs:
When will I be famous – Bros
Moving on up – M People
For once in my life – Stevie Wonder
Working 9 to 5 – Dolly Parton

Ellis Rich, chairman of PRS for Music comments: “Politics and music have a long-standing reputation of going hand in hand. Many famous artists have expressed their political voice through the medium of music, whilst many politicians have used music as a platform to address their audience. The song which each party leader ultimately decides to use could have a significant impact on the outcome of the upcoming elections”.

Any views on which songs might be better ?

Pressure on Baroness Scotland after new revelations

It is being reported that Baroness Scotland never asked to see the passport of the illegal immigrant she employed illegally.

It puts further pressure on her to resign and overshadows this week's Labour conference.

Iain Dale on Bracknell shortlist ?

Rumours and comments on ConHome suggest Iain Dale is one of the six shortlisted Tories to replace Andrew Mackay in Bracknell.

Only a rumour as yet.

Update : In further support of this, Iain says on Twitter that he is canvassing for a local council election this morning. I note on the Bracknell Council website that they have a by-election in October.

Another guilty pleasure is back

We all have a guilty pleasure. For some it is Strictly Come Dancing, for others it is The X Factor or The Jeremy Kyle Show. But foe me, THIS IS MY GUILTY PLEASURE.

"Bring on the wall !"

What do you do when you see a beggar ?

Watching 'The One Show' on BBC tonight it was interesting to see the article about beggars and the evidence that they do not earn a good living from begging on the streets of our towns and cities.

One of the myths put around in the late 80s and early 90s by the tabloids was that beggars earn £200-£300 a day, but that clearly is not the case. However, the programme did make me think about my own attitude to beggars, particularly in the light of the advice from homeless charities on the show who all advised people never to give money to beggars, instead telling people to but them food or as a better option, give the money to homeless charity like shelter.

My own personal attitude to beggars has been to give money to Big Issue sellers (and I don't take the magazine) because I see them as trying to make the situation better by hard work. Aside from that, I think I try to use certain things to justify my own unwillingness to give money to beggars.

In particular, I find the whole issue of beggars with dogs a complete contradiction. If you don't have enough money to feed yourself, why have a dog. If you have enough money to feed a dog, you don't need to beg. Yes, I know it offers companionship, but if you don't have the money to fed yourself, why inflict this starving and suffering on an animal ?

So what am I trying to say ? I guess I'm like most people. I don't give money to beggars and I try to justify it in my mind using my moral compass. What would I do if I were in a desperate situation ? I'd like to think I'd try my hardest through hard work to sort myself out. That said, I am lucky enough to have a family that love and care for me. Without my great upbringing, what would I have been like. I guess it's a case of "there but for the grace of God go I".

Anyone who wants to offer their views would be welcome.

Tories want to make BBC a puppet of the Tories officially

Apparently the Tories want to openly politicise the BBC by positively discriminating in favour of recruiting Tor members as BBC journalists.

Another ploy by the Tories to ruin the BBC and a sign that the Tories care little for unbiased news gathering.

Hat Tip to Irfan Ahmed

How dim is Sir Liam Donaldson ?

The Chief Medical Officer Liam Donaldson said two weeks ago that

"We are tantalisingly close to beating swine flu".

Anyone with any medical knowledge would know that this was a stupid comment to make. Although flu numbers were at the time falling, it was obvious that this was down to the school holidays. This was made even more obvious by the fact that flu numbers started falling first in Scotland (where they go on holiday first) and then started to rise again in Scotland (when they returned earlier than in England and Wales). So knowing this, why did Sir Liam say what he said ?

Now, with the holidays over, we have seen two rises in successive weeks, and now Sir Liam says he thinks "this might be the start of the second wave". Isn't that plainly obvious to everyone ? So why did Sir Liam close his eyes and hope for the best two weeks ago and make such an inane statement ?

Furthermore though, it does make you wonder why schools were not kept closed for another couple of weeks. Children apparently infect 2.4 other people with any virus they have whereas adults infect 1.6 people. This means that children will infect 50% more people than adults this meaning the return to school will make things much worse.

If they had hung on for a couple of weeks before allowing the reopening of schools we would have seen weekly infection rates fall to around 1000 a week. That means that within three weeks of schools reopening we would have been up to about 7000 infections a week just as the vaccine would come on stream. This means that the vaccine would have had a chance to be effective in halting the very worst of the second wave. Instead, by the time the vaccine comes on stream in around 3 weeks infection levels will be 72,000 per week. By the time the vaccine is effective (10-14 days) that means that infection levels will reach 250,000 a week. Assuming the current death rates persist it means around 50-80 people dying who need not have died.

And still Sir Liam thought we were closed to beating swine flu. What an absolute idiot.

Update : Interestingly, the highest number of hospitalisations for any age group so far infected with swine flu is the under 5s, according to the BBC documentary last week. So guess which group is not going to be in the first round of vaccinations ? Under 5s. Well done Sir Liam.

Is there anything he will not say ?

Charles Clarke was when serving as a government minister that just about everyone despised. He would defend the indefensible, introduced legislation that was at odds with the principles of the labour movement from which he came, and seemed like your typical toadying minister.

As a result of this his majority was slashed last time and he now sits on a relatively small majority over the Liberal Democrats in his Norwich South seat.

Then he lost his job as a minister.

From that point on we are supposed to believe from his regular headline grabbing attempts to attack Gordon Brown, a man who Clarke spoke highly of when he was a minister, that he is Labour MP people can trust to speak the truth. Piffle and balderdash.

Charles Clarke, in my opinion, will do anything to save his parliamentary career. This week he was attending the Lib Dem conference speaking at a fringe event. Perhaps the aim was to try and persuade Lib Dems he isn't so bad and that a journey to Norwich South to help out Simon Wright's Lib Dem challenge there is not worth the time. I would strongly disagree. Anyone who wants to send a message to Labour MPs that they will be judged on how they acted when in power, they will be reminded of the wasted opportunities they had and they will have to take responsibility for the mess the country is in after 12 years of Labour rule, then Mr Clarke should be one of our top targets to unseat.

When it comes to MPs doing one thing in office but saying the opposite when out of power, in my opinion Mr Clarke really does take some beating.

Why you cannot rely on "The Market" to look after us

If you ever needed proof why the market does not self regulate and why rules, laws and governments are needed, take the cases reported today of companies ripping off the public sector (you know the public sector, the one always being slagged off by the private sector as being inefficient) by colluding of tenders for contracts.

Yes, finally evidence has been produced to show that taxpayers are being ripped off be private companies who in some cases pay each other to put in inflated bids !

No doubt some libertarian will be along shortly to tell is that the market self regulates and that this is all a figment of my imagination.

Tory Party fractures in Bedford over Mayoral Open Primary

Iain Dale hosted the Tory "Open Primary" in Bedford a few days ago to select their candidate and did a good job of glossing over what seemed obvious from all the TV coverage. That being that the meeting appeared to have been packed with supporters of one candidate.

People commenting to Iain's blog suggested that voters had been instructed by their Mosque to attend and vote for a particular candidate whilst the sudden interest (over 800 people turning up with undreds left outside) surpassed Tory estimates and previous open primaries, suggesting somethig different was happening in Bedford in order to see such a dramatic increase in the turnout of people voting.

Now this criticism would be easy to dismiss and has been by many Tories merely as Lib Dem bluster or sour grapes. But the rift in the local Tories in Beford, widely gossiped and whispered about, but denied by the Tories and Tory bloggers, appears now to have made the news. The Bedford on Sunday Newspaper reports that one of the defeated candidates who was shortlisted has complained that the meeting had been packed and broke its own rules that had been arranged in advance.

In the Bedford on Sunday article, which had details of a leaked e-mail from Nicky Attenborough (Tory Group leader on Bedford Council) it says

‘It is my opinion that Monday night was quite disgraceful. The members, who had been told to get there by 7.30pm, were left sitting there for two hours and the candidates locked in one nasty classroom for two hours and told nothing.‘When I protested at the shambles that was occurring outside, I was told by our minder, ‘you can always go home’.

‘What followed was quite shameful, for a party that prides itself on its efficiency and democracy.‘It was very obvious that the meeting had been hijacked and quite clearly, from where I was sitting, I could see the Liberal Democrats on the front row, Labour on the back row and a sea of faces who couldn't even understand what the candidates were saying.

‘So how could you say that this was a Conservative selection procedure? It was a joke and the backlash has been very severe. Especially since the members were written and told they would have a private meeting in the end to endorse the candidate.‘Despite several angry protestations from the floor, this was ignored, and people with a green band were told to put their hands up. Quite frankly, it just seemed the icing on a very bad cake.

‘You have treated loyal members of this Party with utter contempt, people who fundraise for you, support you financially, go out in the good years and the bad, in all weathers to deliver and canvass for you, sit in polling stations for you, and up to now, were proud to stand for the Conservative Party.

With BBC East reporting this in some detail on the lcoal news today, with more expected tomorrow, it seems that the cat is out of the bag about how this meeting was not all that it seemed.

Remember, David Cameron goes around telling everyone that this is what other parties should be doing !

Tories and the BBC - Shadow Minister lets the cat out of the bag

I argued some years ago that the strategy of those who oppose the BBC does not hold water.

Those with an axe to grind against the BBC attack it when it has popular programmes for appealing to populism and comprting with commercial broadcasters but when the BBC commits itself to minority interestests it gets attacked for not justifying its license fee due to lack of viewers.

This hollow line of reasoning has been shown in its full colours by the ever excellent Liberal Burblings who points out the total hypocrisy of the Tory spokesman at the Royal television Society's Conference.

As I wrote in my original article

"the best way for the BBC to justify its existence is to ensure that they have high viewing figures, popular shows, relevant content, and hit shows. In order to do this the BBC needs to invest lots of money in facilities, creative people and top presenters. But this is where the problems start. If the BBC pays too much for top stars, they are criticised by the Tories/Daily Mail. But as soon as the BBC fails to have top shows, lacks the stars to get viewers watching you know that the Daily Mail will be the very first to jump in and demand the axing of the licence fee because the BBC no longer has any top stars that anyone wants to watch."

And for anyone who believes that commercial broadcaster can make the sort of programmes the BBC makes, can I refer you to THIS article I wrote a long time ago which deals with original BBC shows and ITV derivitive copies which are useless in comparison.

Tory blogger doing the job that a Lib Dem blogger should be doing.

One of my favourite Tory blogs is Andrew Allison's "A Conservative View". As a resident of Hull North Andrew is heartily sick and tired of his rather useless Labour MP and has in recent weeks regularly highlighted the flaws in her arguments, her contradictions and ways in which public money is used to fund her campaigns.

All of this is well observed and worthy of being pointed out.

My only question, why is a Lib Dem not doing this sort of thing too ? Hull is a major Lib Dem target yet it takes a local Tory to tell us these things.

In the meantime, well done Andrew.

Why Nick Clegg is right about the Tory con trick

Nick Clegg will open the Lib Dem conference with a stinging attack on David Cameron and the Tories for trying to con the electorate in thinking that Tories offer a change that will be break from the politics of the last 30 years. He also will also say the Tories arrogantly believe it is "their turn".

The questions is, was it ever any different ?

In 1997 I remember friends of mine who were not interested in politics get swept along in the religious fervour of New Labour and that things were going to change. Aide from the fact that I was a Lib Dem back then, I felt rather down the day Labour were elected because I knew a massive opportunity to deliver real change had been missed by Tony Blair in an attempt to appear safe to Middle England voters. As a result reforms were small, change was merely window dressing and we kept most of the same old systems and institutions that needed radical reform. Unless you lived in Scotland or Wales, change passed you by.

Now what is different ? What are the Tories planning to do which they think earns them the title to be called progressive ? As I see it the only thing that people expect the Tories to do is make cuts. Now I know the Lib Dems (and Labour belatedly) pledge this too, but I hear nothing else which involves reform other than bland and rather idiotic statements about allowing people with no educational background to run schools. Where is the Tory big idea ?

The answer is that there is no big idea. The Tory plan is to play it safe, follow the Basic Fawlty line of "Don't mention the war" but change it to "Don't mention a policy". I have visions of Tory shadow ministers returning to Cameron's office saying "I mentioned a policy once but I think I got away with it !"

The truth is this country needs more than a rearranging of the deckchairs. We do need policy that will dramatically alter the directing we take if not we risk returning back to where we are now in 10 years time because nobody genuinely believes the Tories will properly regulate the City (after all, their fundraising efforts are co-ordinated by hedge fund managers) whilst genuine policy breakthroughs like those outlined by IDS the other day on welfare do not seem to have been welcomed with open arms.

So whilst the Tories might be better than Labour (come off it, anyone would be better than Labour), what we really want is a something that is more than "a bit better", because this country deserves so much more.