Indigo publishes local election predictions

I received an e-mail today with the predictions of this year's local council elections, as extrapolated by David Boothroyd, a psephologist of some note in usenet circles.

Unusually for David, he has actually included the Liberal Democrats in his calculations. David Boothroyd was famous on the old uk.politics.electoral usenet group for never including the Liberal Democrats on any swing calculations. This mean that in by-elections like Christchurch, where the Labour vote dropped by 10% but the Tory vote dropped by 30%, he would calculate this as a swing to Labour.

If you want to look at the predictions, you can find a link HERE.

From a local point of view, I note that he predicts Lib Dem holds in North Norfolk and South Norfolk whilst nationally, we can expect a number of gains and better results than those achieved last year.


Justin said...

I'm not normally an optimistic person but I think Boothroyd underestimates the number of Conservative gains and over estimates Lib Dem ones. Labour *may* gain Thurrock but that's about it. Can't, for example, see North wilts going Yellow. On the other hand, can see South Cambs going Blue. Time will tell.

Steve said...

North Wilts is trhe area voered by that tory MP that has had all the scandal recently. The one who elft his wife who has cancer. It can't help Tory chances.

Anonymous said...

Will the Libs take Bristol ? They cocked up a bit there last year and I see Manchester is not on the list after a poor show last time round.