5/18/2008

Let's face it, anything but a comfortable Tory win should be unthinkable

The Tories keep playing down their chances of victory in Crewe and Nantwich, raising the labour majority of 7,000 in 2005 and trying to manage expectations. but let's be clear, if the Tories cannot win this comfortably they have problems.

For starters, if the Lib Dems had been in second place just 7,000 behind Labour would anyone bet against the Lib Dems ? Of course not. And let's face it, the Tories have a lot going in their favour at the moment.

Firstly, much of Labour's 7,000 majority in 2005 was a personal vote for Gwyneth Dunwoody who had been MP for the seat for decades.

Then you have to take in to account that Gordon Brown is the most unpopular Labour leader in polling history which when added to the Tory party having a 20% poll lead really does highlight that every single vital piece of the jigsaw is there for a Tory win.

If the Lib Dems could overturn 10-15,000 vote majorities in Tory seats from 1992-1997, the Tories have got to be able to do this now.

Personally I expect a good Tory majority of about 3,000.

Update : It's fascinating to read the comments from those who have accused me of being both Labour and Conservative. What a load of idiots !

10 comments:

NNNN said...

I agree 100%. The Toriesshould win because verything is intheir favour. if the Lib Dems can win by-elecitons sometimes from third place when on 15% in the opinion polls, the tories have to win here.

Anonymous said...

What about the chance of us pushing Labour into 3rd if our campaign is gaining ground in the final few days or is that wishful thinking?!

Anonymous said...

I see your tactic - build up an urealistic hope and then nock us down when we don't win. It won't work old bean.

ThunderDragon said...

I agree, Nich. But, in the end, this by-election doesn't really matter.

Johnny Norfolk said...

If you are correct, it is the end of Labour as we know it, at last. In my part of Norfolk the labour party are hated, is the only way I can describe it. I have never known such strong feeling from the locals.

Johnny Norfolk said...

Good to see Clegg has offered support to a possible Tory minority government. How does that fit with our leftie Norfolk Blogger. No comment I see.

You can find the full quote on Conservative Home.

jailhouselawyer said...

Oh dear, surely not another closet Tory? Clegg has nailed his true colours to the Tory mast.

JAYMASON said...

PERSONALLY I'M LOOKING FOR LABOUR 4TH BEHIND LIB DEMS AND BRITAIN FOR BEAUTYS

Dr.Doom said...

Typical yellow bell namby pamby Liberalism safely at home tucked up in bed with the Conservatives.

The Liberals, a pointless Party.

Anonymous said...

I understand you're a Lib Dem, aright. But perhaps being one has blinded you to the utter uselessness of both main parties at by-elections.

In fact it would be surprising if the Tories did win the by-election, especially considering their campaign force seems to be a bunch of Conservative Future tossers up from London in their brogues and Barbour (*just* as Labour start attacking "Tory toffs"). I imagine that doesn't go down well in the rougher parts of Crewe, and that the "one of us" line will win through.

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