2/20/2008

Why are the polls under reflecting Barack Obama's appeal ?

All the polls carried out in the last seven days in Wisconsin, scene of barack Obama's latest victory in the Democratic primaries showed, with one exception, a small Obama lead, but in each and every case they undervalued Obama's support. So does this have a messge for what will happen in Texas and Ohio next week ?

The Wisonsim Polls showed, on average, 52% for Obama, and 42% for Clinton, with about 6% undecideds.

Yet in the real primary in Wisconsin Obama polled 59% to Clinton's 41%. So the opinion polls under represent Obama by 7% and over rate Clinton by 1%.

Is this all just the undecideds going for Obama at the last minute because of CLinton's attack ads ? Perhaps, but the polls were wrong in many of the other nine states Obama has won since Super Tuesday.

So what are the polls saying in Texas and Ohio ? In Texas the latest polls (an average of the previous seven polls in fact) have it as Clinton on 50% and Obama in 44%. So if the under valuing of Obama is correct, he could win here.

In Ohio Clinton looks safer, on 51.5 % to Obama's 40%, but again, with some momentum, Obama could tie it here.

I don't bet on US politics, but if Obama even comes close to winning in Texas of Ohia, hillary Clinton is dead in the water and I wouldn't bet against Obama in Taxas right now.

3 comments:

Richard T said...

It is quite likely that in the primaries those voting do not match those who are 'opinion polled'. Depending on the state and the poll sampling, if the primary is for party members or registered party members it may not match the opinion poll outcome. In addition some states run open primaries where anyone can vote and the obvious happens in them.

lettersfromatory said...

The polls don't reflect Obama's ability to mobilise his support base as well as chipping into Hillary's. He is a one-man campaigning machine!

The Half-Blood Welshman said...

It might also suggest that Obama is better at picking up those undecideds - which is significant if the Democrats stop and think, "who do we want to appeal to the floating voter?"

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