All the polls carried out in the last seven days in Wisconsin, scene of barack Obama's latest victory in the Democratic primaries showed, with one exception, a small Obama lead, but in each and every case they undervalued Obama's support. So does this have a messge for what will happen in Texas and Ohio next week ?
The Wisonsim Polls showed, on average, 52% for Obama, and 42% for Clinton, with about 6% undecideds.
Yet in the real primary in Wisconsin Obama polled 59% to Clinton's 41%. So the opinion polls under represent Obama by 7% and over rate Clinton by 1%.
Is this all just the undecideds going for Obama at the last minute because of CLinton's attack ads ? Perhaps, but the polls were wrong in many of the other nine states Obama has won since Super Tuesday.
So what are the polls saying in Texas and Ohio ? In Texas the latest polls (an average of the previous seven polls in fact) have it as Clinton on 50% and Obama in 44%. So if the under valuing of Obama is correct, he could win here.
In Ohio Clinton looks safer, on 51.5 % to Obama's 40%, but again, with some momentum, Obama could tie it here.
I don't bet on US politics, but if Obama even comes close to winning in Texas of Ohia, hillary Clinton is dead in the water and I wouldn't bet against Obama in Taxas right now.