The media are reporting that Gordon Brown is likely to wait until Wednesday next week before making any possible announcement about an Autumn election. One of the reasons cited by the press for next Wednesday is that this will be after David Cameron's speech to the Tory Party conference. What is the logic in this for Gordon Brown.
If this were 2003 and it was Iain Duncan Smith speaking to a divided Tory party, then I could accept the logic of the papers. However, even with all the summer troubles that David Cameron has had, there is no way that the Conservative Party conference will be anything other than a pro Cameron, closely controlled, well "spun" election rally.
To allow Cameron to have his 15 minutes plus of unadulterated analysis, comment and focus on his leadership speech is worth 2 % in the opinion polls. So there is absolutely no way that waiting serves any purpose at all, unless you are a Conservative.
In my opinion the best time to call the election would be on Monday morning. Whilst thousands of Tories are in hotels that they will have to pay for, many will be hundreds of miles from their constituencies, and suddenly the Representation of the People's Act will cut in meaning that equal coverage will go to all the parties.
So if anyone can enlighten me on why going after Cameron's speech is to Gordon brown's advantage, please let me know.
7 comments:
I thought that the expenses limit kicks in when Parliament is actually dissolved - not when the PM declares his intention to ask the Monarch for a dissolution?
Maybe - and I admit the evidence is a bit thin on the ground for this - it's because he's a democrat?
Effectively cancelling the conference/main publicity opportunity of your main opposition by Prime Ministerial fiat just days after you've had your own isn't the act of someone committed to the whole democratic process.
Fairness.
It is a British trait.
Fairnes my eye! If he calls it on Monay or before the Tories get a massive boost as they can use their conference to rally the troops.
Gordon may be infinitely better than Tone but he's still a political operator who will seek maximum advantage when he calls it on Monday 8th October.
Because an election called on Monday will hand the first 3 days of publicity to the Tories. The RPA doesn't kick in until parliament is dissolved hence Cameron would use the conference to launch the manifesto and Brown is on the backfoot from day one. That's why it won't be Monday.
But the Tories will get 3 days of wall to wall coverage anyway. If an election is called the TV news will automatically switch attention on to Labour and Lib Dems. Where is Ming today ? What are the battle ground seats, Gordon Brown in the marginals.
This would be the news agenda.
Nick you make a very good point but as the other posters have pointed out, its one of those bizarre British values Gordon has been espousing on recently, fair play.
It would just look to damn opportunistic and that has the potential to backfire badly.
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