3/02/2007

Norwich South Vulnerable To Being Lost - Says Peter Kellner

Peter Kellner, Chairman of YouGov, the UK Polling Organisation, announced on Anglia TV's 'Late Edition' programme last night (Thursday) that Charles Clarke's Norwich South constituency is vulnerable to being lost by Labour at the next general election.

Simon Wright, Liberal Democrat Parliamentary Spokesman for Norwich South, would be most likely to gain. The Liberal Democrats came a close second last time in 2005. Boundary changes at the next election are also favourable to the Liberal Democrats, and the independent UK Polling Report (associated with YouGov) puts the swing required for a Lib Dem gain next time as just 3.85%

Norwich South was virtually the Labour Party's only seat in East Anglia in 1987, but nearly 10 years of Tony Blair has done a lot to change that. No-one should be surprised that Charles Clarke appears to be seeking an alternative to Gordon Brown to back in the leadership contest.
Charles Clarke appears desperate for any publicity at the moment in order to raise his profile and save his seat.

5 comments:

leedssouthcentral said...

Nich - you mean Norwich North (John Garret in 1987) not Norwich South. Also, people who don't know the area might like to know where UEA is.

Anonymous said...

Isn't it obvious that Norwich South is vulberable next time? Did Mr Kellner say who it was likely to be lost to? I'm gure the Greens and the Tories may disagree with your prediction.

Norfolk Blogger said...

Actually, I am right about John Garrett. He beat John Powley, then Tory MP who snatched Norwich South in 1983 when it was a three way marginal. He "handed over" the seat to Clarke in 1997. The MP for Norwich North in 1983, 1987 and 1992 is Patrick Thompson. Iain Dale worked for him in this period, so as you can imagine, he was a Tory.

As for the anonymouys comment, the Greens polled well in County elections on the last General election day, but their General Election vote was significantly down. People know tha tthe Greens are no threat to Labour at the General Election. The Tories are in a worse position. Last time they could claim the tactival vote, having been in second place before, but a disastrous result saw them slip again to third place whilst good bits of Norwich South for them leave the Constituency (cringleford, colney, etc)

If the seat was such a good seat for the Tories there parliamentary candidate from last time wouldn't have been trying to get selected for Great Yarmouth.

Justin Hinchcliffe said...

I don't know enough about the Norwich seats to really comment. On paper, though, the South looks good for you guys and the North good for Cameron's Conservatives.

I may actually put money on you losing one seat to Labour: Southwark and Bermondsey (for a combination of reasons).

I had to laugh when you said, “People know that the Greens are no threat to Labour at the General Election…”

Most people think the same is true for the Lib Dems (even the poll on Lib Dem Voice puts the Lib Dems’ true poll rating at 15%, according to your own members!)

Norfolk Blogger said...

Justin, The Greens in Norwich were doing as well in 2005 as they were in 2006, perhaps not in seats gained, but in votes in local elections across Norwich, and they significantly underpolled in the general election on the same day. Look how much effort the Greens poured in to their "target" seat in Brighton, and still they only got 20% of the vote.

As for the Lib Dem voice poll, I assum you are using a "mode" average, which is proably the least accurate way to take an average. Even if you are taking the "mode" average, actually the number who think that our poll rating is 20% is higher, but if you use the "mean" average, the typical way to take an average, the figure is actually 18-19%. Lies, damned lies and statistics eh ?

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