First poll in Norwich North

I have been contacted about a poll (from a small sample of just 300 voters) in Norwich North which will come as a relief to the Lib Dems and a blow to the Greens who are claiming to be ahead of the Lib Dems after recent elections in the constitutency.

The poll shows the figures as Conservative 34%, Labour 30%, Liberal Democrat 15%, Green 14% and Other 7%.

The figures will also give comfort to both Labour and Tory camps with the Tory party on 34% but Labour not out of the race yet on 30%.

Update : I note that the Green's (particularly Scottish ones who have probably never been to Norwich) are already spinning this poll as a jump in their vote, not noting that they were claiming a week ago to be the clear challengers in the seat. Strange logic ? Isn't that just typical of the control freakery of the Greens that "They know best" ? That'll be the same Greens who want Norwich Airport closed, but dare not mention it in Norwich North (where the Airport is) because so many people work there or fly from there on their holidays !


Malcolm Redfellow said...

Hmm: sample of 300? Iffy. Very iffy. I think the general US view is such polls have a reliability of around +/-4%

We don't know the method of interview or the wording of the question.

We do know that the method ICM use to "re-balance" (i.e. re-engineer the figures to suit past admitted voting habits) is not universally accepted.

Now look at the source.

The sponsor was UCU, and the headline issue was increasing expenditure on eduction. That could, just could imply a degree of issue-pushing. Particularly when we see the main conclusion is, so surprising (not): With the election on a knife-edge this is a clear signal to all those standing that education must be at the top of their agenda.

Without a lot more supporting information, ukpollingreport's typo ("Nowhich North") seems appropriate comment.

Or, as used to be current around Wells and Fakenham, "Yoo dun arf tork a load of squit, bor."

Nich Starling said...

I agree entirely. A sample of 300 is nowhere near enough, with 1000 generally accepted as a reasonable sample.

It's just a general pointer that the Green "bandwagon" has halted in Norwich, and that things are tighter than many had perhaps expected.

None of the above said...

the trouble is that Rupert (it's all about ME!) Read find this poll very good news for the Greens and yet Norfolkblogger sees it totally opposite.

spin upon spin upon spin. I don't think professional political geeks would recognise objective truth if it were two feet in front of them.

Here it is: A lot of nice middle class people vote for the greens in Norwich. There are not enough nice middle class people in Norwich North for them to win. By a mile. They will get a reasonable slice of the vote though. Neither will the Lib dems win. People just don't see them as a serious force. Always also-rans.

You heard it here first.

Nich Starling said...

I am not involved inthe Lib Dem campaign in any way. I offered my help with local issues (being local, being educated locally,working locally, etc, etc, etc, but I have not been asked to be involved, so I am not spinning this story on behalf of anyone.

As for what the Greens say, a leading Norwich Green is angry that the Lib Dems are pointing to things he wrote a few years ago, so if they cannot stand by comments written then, I fail to understand how anyone can believe what they say now.


Anonymous said...

As a decent Lib Dem supporter are you prepared to condem the LIb Dems overall election policy of Be Wicked, Act Shemelessly and Stir endlessely.

Also they say postive campaigning will not to win elections.

Nich Starling said...

That quotation was from the last decade surely ? So old, so out of date and so over used. Come on, come up with something published since 2005 that says to do that.

Anonymous said...

You cant hide behind this in the last decade thing.

Although they may not use the quote the Lib Dems still fight elections on the Be Wicked, Act Shamelessly and a Stir Endlessely basis.

I really think that you should condem it.

Nich Starling said...

But in my experience we don't campaign in this way and never have.

I can provfide copies of fake Lib Dem Focus leaflets delivered in 1999 in Cromer (North Norfolk) , fake Labour leaflets delivered by the Tories in 2001 in North Norfolk and a leaflet that libelled Norman lamb in 2005 for which Iain Dale had to issue an apology. All cases of the Tories campaigning negatively, acting scurrilously and shamelessly.

Theses are real example which i am sure you would also condemn. Likewise, I would assume that you would like to condemn the Tories for photocopying Lib Dem campaign handbooks and giving them out at Tory councillors conferences as a friend of mine in Peterborough Tories often used to pick his copies of Lib Dem handbooks at Tory conferences for free.

People in glass houses ...

Now remind me, when was the Lib Dem handbook you refer to actually published, how widely was it published and what is the Lib Dem advice now ?

FX. Tumbleweed passes by.

Malc said...

Are you guys putting out "Only the Lib Dems can win here" leaflets on the back of 15% in a poll?

Or is that just a Scottish Lib Dem trick?