The economic figures are not adding up the right way if Gordon brown believes that waiting six months is going to boost his poll ratings, with further statistics highlighted by the BBC today showing again why Gordon Brown needs to go to the polls early if he is to stand any chance of victory.
The BBC highlights that house repossessions are up 30% in the last year. A stark reminder of the late 1980's and early 1990's when so many formerly Tory voters lost their homes or fell in to negative equity, with so many of these voters telling themselves that they would never vote Tory again. And in many cases they haven't.
With interest rates set to rise in late October or November, this situation will not get any better for Gordon Brown.
The other question for the Prime Minister is what is going to significantly change in the next six months that will enable him to have more than a 5% poll lead ? The economy is not on the rise, Cameron has had a bad summer and Brown still has the gloss of a new leader. In sic months time the economy will be worse, or certainly no better, Cameron will have recovered (surely ? He can't do any worse), and he himself will have lost his new leader gloss. People go on about Labour's lack of cash. Will that be sorted in six months ? I doubt it, so going to the polls now would make little difference.
So I would put money on an election this year if only for the reason that I cannot think why he needs to wait.