The economic figures are not adding up the right way if Gordon brown believes that waiting six months is going to boost his poll ratings, with further statistics highlighted by the BBC today showing again why Gordon Brown needs to go to the polls early if he is to stand any chance of victory.
The BBC highlights that house repossessions are up 30% in the last year. A stark reminder of the late 1980's and early 1990's when so many formerly Tory voters lost their homes or fell in to negative equity, with so many of these voters telling themselves that they would never vote Tory again. And in many cases they haven't.
With interest rates set to rise in late October or November, this situation will not get any better for Gordon Brown.
The other question for the Prime Minister is what is going to significantly change in the next six months that will enable him to have more than a 5% poll lead ? The economy is not on the rise, Cameron has had a bad summer and Brown still has the gloss of a new leader. In sic months time the economy will be worse, or certainly no better, Cameron will have recovered (surely ? He can't do any worse), and he himself will have lost his new leader gloss. People go on about Labour's lack of cash. Will that be sorted in six months ? I doubt it, so going to the polls now would make little difference.
So I would put money on an election this year if only for the reason that I cannot think why he needs to wait.
2 comments:
The thing with Gordon is that you have to understand that he is not, never has been, and never will be natural leader material. A while ago he set up what had all the hallmarks of a coup, and bottled out of it at the last minute; a more self-confident man would have had a punt at that point to see if Tony could be shifted and would've accepted defeat as the possible risk.
As it was, he got his crown handed to him by the out-going king along with implicit instructions to behave himself like a good little lackey; King Tony even managed to go on a valedictory final cruise before vanishing from public view entirely.
Gordon simply didn't have the balls to boot the bugger out and symbolically beat him; if he had done so he'd be able to wield much more authority to keep MPs in line now.
Also, notice how Gordon is still doing his Macavity disappearing act whenever trouble is about?
The man is quite simply lacking in the balls and backbone department; he doesn't have the courage to risk all on an early election which would be fought with almost empty party coffers due to his predecessor's complete lack of concern, especially not when the Tories can probably find a few million down the back of the sofa if they have to.
No, he'll wait, and he'll dither, and he'll get his ankles savaged by one union after another and the income of Labour will dwindle as the unions desert him one by one, and he'll end up having an election right at the last minute because the greedy, stupid little bastard wanted power above all else but just didn't have the courage to go grab it for himself.
I agree with much of what you say. I do think he is too cautious
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