Defective Defection Predictions

A few weeks ago the Tories were claiming a Lib Dem was set to defect to them. It didn't happen.

Then three days ago a a Tory MP defects to the Labour without any predictions at all that it was going to happen.

Yesterday it was predicted that another Tory was going to defect to Labour today. And it hasn't happened.

Shouldn't the rule be that defections happen when you least expect them and that predicting them is a pointless activity ?

Update and Correction: As has been pointed out, I meant to write "A Tory MP defects to Labour", not "A Tory MP defects to the Tories". A Freudian slip perhaps.